Too Many Homes for Sale, or Not Enough? Making Sense of Recent Headlines for Home Buyers

If you’ve been thinking about buying a house, you’ve probably heard that there aren’t that many homes for sale. And if you’ve been actively looking, chances are you can confirm that firsthand. Browsing listings often feels like looking for a needle in a haystack. You find a home you like, and before you can even schedule a showing, it’s already under contract.

If you’ve been following the market, you may have also heard that one solution to the housing shortage is for builders to put more new homes on the market. After all, it makes sense—if there’s not enough to go around, why not make more?

So here’s where things might start to feel confusing. Recent news headlines paint two very different pictures.

On one hand, an article from Fast Company points out that builders currently have the highest number of unsold new homes since 2009. That seems like a surplus, right? Surely that should ease the pressure on the market. But on the other hand, MSN recently reported that a lack of inventory, not rising interest rates, is the single biggest obstacle facing buyers.

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher: are there too many homes on the market, or not enough? And more importantly, how does it all affect you as a potential buyer?

If you’re feeling a bit perplexed by these seemingly contradictory headlines, you’re not alone. Real estate is complicated, and national news doesn’t always make it easier to get a clear picture.
The reality is, both statements can be true at the same time. It’s not as simple as one or the other.

Builders do have a lot of new homes sitting unsold. But the total number of new homes on the market is still a relatively small fraction of the overall housing inventory. At the same time, the existing home market is tight, with many homeowners hesitant to sell due to higher interest rates. Together, these factors create a market that can feel like feast or famine depending on where you’re looking.

Confused? That’s okay. The good news is, the housing market isn’t as hopeless as it might seem. It just requires a closer look.

Why Local Markets May Tell a Different Story

The first thing to know about the real estate market is that it’s not just local, it’s hyperlocal. National headlines give us big-picture trends, but what’s happening in your local market might tell a completely different story. For example, a rural, relatively undeveloped area experiencing a building boom may have a high number of unsold new homes. But a more developed neighboring town could be struggling with record-low inventory levels.

According to the National Association of Realtors, 4.38 million homes were sold in 2024. But according to Barron’s, approximately 683,000 of those sales were new homes—that’s about 16% of the total sales. Yes, new home inventory is high relative to recent years, but it’s still just a drop in the bucket compared to the overall market.

For buyers, this means that the availability of homes depends largely on where you’re looking and what kind of home you’re seeking. If you’re in a market where builders have overbuilt, you might find better opportunities to negotiate or score incentives like price reductions, upgrades, or assistance with closing costs. On the other hand, if you’re in a market with little new construction, the competition could be fierce for existing homes, especially in popular price ranges.

Another factor to consider is timing. Builders aren’t just sitting on these homes for fun. They’re anticipating a strong spring market in 2025, which means they’re likely to hold out for better prices rather than sell at a steep discount now. So while there might be more opportunities in certain markets, buyers should still act quickly and strategically.

How to Make Sense of Your Local Market

So what does all of this mean for you? First, it’s important to take a step back from the headlines and get a realistic picture of your local market. That’s where a real estate agent comes in. A knowledgeable agent can help you:

• Understand whether your area has a surplus of new homes, a shortage of homes overall, or something in between.
• Identify which price ranges are experiencing the most competition and which offer more opportunities.
• Spot potential deals on new homes in markets where builders are eager to sell.

If you’re in a market with a lot of unsold new homes, you might be in a great position to find a deal—but that doesn’t mean you should wait. Builders are betting on a strong spring market, so the incentives you see now might not be around in a few months.

If, on the other hand, you’re in a market where inventory is tight, it’s even more important to work with a local expert. They can help you navigate the challenges of competing with other buyers, whether that means finding off-market properties, crafting a strong offer, or simply understanding which neighborhoods offer the most value.

The Takeaway:

News headlines about the current real estate market seem to contradict each other. Some reports say there is more new home inventory on the market, which is supposed to help cut down on buyer competition and possibly lower prices. On the other hand, there are reports that there still isn’t enough inventory to satisfy demand!

While national trends are interesting (and confusing!), real estate always comes down to your local market and your specific situation.

If you’re considering buying a house, the best first step is to talk to a local real estate agent who knows the ins and outs of your area. They’ll be able to give you a clearer picture of what’s really going on and help you determine the best strategy for your home search. Whether you’re looking for a brand-new home with all the latest upgrades or hoping to find a hidden gem in a competitive market, the right guidance can make all the difference.